Over the past few years we have all become religious in our devotion to on-line advertising. Whether your favorite flavor is search or display media or some combination of the two there isn’t a marketing person alive who doesn’t, at some point in any conversation, talk about the seismic shift from traditional media to digital media. Yes, the amount now spent on digital media is staggering, $12bn or more depending on which analyst you choose to believe. And further, the growth rates, historically 20%+, are expected to continue at double digit pace even in a weakening economic environment. And lastly, there is the percentage it now represents, nearly 12%, with expectations that it will double within 3 years. There is no doubt that on-line advertising is real, increasing in influence, expanding in flexibility as technology allows for richer formats and therefore greater creativity. Why then is the article entitled the Death of On Line Advertising when in fact, we all know it is anything but dead?

“The King is Dead Long Live the King.” I often think if this phrase, uttered in passing the torch from on Monarch to another, when thinking of how traditional advertising, once king, has passed the baton to on-line advertising, very much the newly coronated king. . And just as the new king is rising to even greater power I am ready now to declare his demise. And not because he is any less powerful, but simply because the notion of a king, a ruler, a dominant force has no role in advertising in today’s modern world. The marketplace is too complex, consumers too sophisticated, too mobile, and too technology savvy to be subject to any one form of communication. 

Advertisers, now think in terms of media mix, meaning how to balance budgets across the spectrum of available media options. In large part because advertisers recognize that the consumer is many places and therefore allocating money across various outlets increases the probability that brands are well represented in the places consumers live. Not a bad idea, but flawed as advertisers try to dumb this down to a simple media allocation exercise. And guess what, on-line media looks in percentage terms in corporate budgets much like it looks in percentage terms in Forrester calculations. Why is that? Who is following who? The symmetry is poetic to the point of inducing nauseau. Why do I say this? Because much like loyal subjects of the king, we have stopped thinking for ourselves. Ask why media mix modeling is such a hot topic? Because the choice between media outlets is an old idea and an easy paradigm to apply.  In the past we had national publications, regional ones, special interest, national papers, local papers, etc. And now we apply that same logic across today’s available outlets. The internet has become just another newspaper or magazine in the mind of many marketers. The first car introduced was referred to as the horseless carriage so that consumers would have an easy point of reference. On-line advertising is, in many ways, still being thought of the horseless carriage.